Kerajaan hari ini sekali lagi membayangkan dengan penurunan harga minyak dunia berterusan, cukai minyak akan dikenakan bermula tahun depan. Dengan harga lantai RM1.90 yang ditetapkan, kerajaan masih membincangkan berapakah nilai cukai yang akan dikenakan. Di China, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) telah membentangkan cadangan cukai 1 yuan bagi gasoline dan 0.8 yuan bagi diesel.
Sumber
Harga minyak pasaran sebenarnya adalah lebih rendah dari harga yang dijual diMalaysia. Kerajaan hanya menurunkan harga minyak pada kadar RM2 walaupun harga pasaran di pam ialah RM1.62 sen. Ini bermakna, walaupun kerajaan mewar-warkan harga minyak diapungkan mengikut harga pasaran, namun begitu dengan kelewatan penurunan yang dilakukan, kerajaan sebenarnya telah mengambil cukai tidak langsung dari rakyat.
Sila rujuk kepada harakah online.
Bagaimana pula dengan cukai rasmi yang akan diumumkan tahun depan?
Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
Harga lantai minyak RM1.90 atau kena cukai?
Seperti yang dijangkakan setelah kerajaan menetapkan mandatori penggunaan biodiesel sawit pada harga RM1.90, hari ini kerajaan telah mengumumkan harga lantai petrol pada harga RM1.90. Seandainya harga minyak dunia jatuh lebih rendah dari harga lantai, makan cukai akan dikenakan. (atau dalam kata lain tidak akan ada penurunan dari RM1.90?)Sumber: Berita RTM 13/12/08 jam 7pagi.
Berikutan dengan harga komoditi sawit yang merundum ke harga terendah sekitar RM1000+ bagi satu tan metrik, kerajaan mencari jalan untuk membantu pengusaha sawit dengan memperkenalkan biodiesel bagi menggantikan minyak diesel. Usaha itu adalah langkah bijak kerajaan bagi membantu industri dan ekonomi negara.
Walaubagaimanapun, dengan penetapan pada harga RM1.90 adalah tidak wajar, memandangkan harga petrol kini pun pada nilai yang sama. Sebelum penetapan harga dilakukan dikatakan harga biodiesel mahupun biopetrol sepatutnya lebih murah dari RM1 memandangkan bekalan yang banyak dan proses penghasilan yang lebih mudah berbanding proses carigali petrol dan bekalan petrol dunia yang makin merosot.
Saya tidak dapat membayangkan bagaimana reaksi rakyat tatkala harga minyak dunia yang semakin merundum, kita terpaksa membeli dengan harga lantai RM1.90, atau dikenakan cukai? Fikir-fikirkanlah...
Berikutan dengan harga komoditi sawit yang merundum ke harga terendah sekitar RM1000+ bagi satu tan metrik, kerajaan mencari jalan untuk membantu pengusaha sawit dengan memperkenalkan biodiesel bagi menggantikan minyak diesel. Usaha itu adalah langkah bijak kerajaan bagi membantu industri dan ekonomi negara.
Walaubagaimanapun, dengan penetapan pada harga RM1.90 adalah tidak wajar, memandangkan harga petrol kini pun pada nilai yang sama. Sebelum penetapan harga dilakukan dikatakan harga biodiesel mahupun biopetrol sepatutnya lebih murah dari RM1 memandangkan bekalan yang banyak dan proses penghasilan yang lebih mudah berbanding proses carigali petrol dan bekalan petrol dunia yang makin merosot.
Saya tidak dapat membayangkan bagaimana reaksi rakyat tatkala harga minyak dunia yang semakin merundum, kita terpaksa membeli dengan harga lantai RM1.90, atau dikenakan cukai? Fikir-fikirkanlah...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Penggunaan Biodiesel diwajibkan menjelang 2010
Sumber
KUALA LUMPUR, 10 Dis (Bernama) -- Penggunaan biodiesel akan dijadikan mandatori bagi sektor pengangkutan dan perindustrian menjelang Januari 2010, kata Menteri Perusahaan Perladangan dan Komoditi Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui.
Katanya mulai Februari tahun depan, kenderaan kerajaan akan mula menggunakan jenama Envo Diesel Esther (B5), yang merupakan satu adunan lima peratus minyak sawit dan 95 peratus diesel. Harga B5 akan ditetapkan sebanyak RM1.95 seliter, dengan kerajaan memberikan sabsidi lima sen seliter.
RM1.90 seliter? Berbaloi ke?
Umum mengetahui, dahulunya ramai membeli kereta yang menggunakan minyak diesel kerana harga minyak diesel yang jauh lebih rendah dari petrol. Namun kini, perbezaannya hanyalah beberapa sen sahaja. Bahkan dengan langkah kerajaan untuk mewajibkan penggunaan biodiesel kelapa sawit pada awal tahun 2010 dengan harga RM1.90 seliter, harga diesel mungkin lebih tinggi dari harga petrol!
Namun saya percaya, kerajaan tidak akan membiarkan perkara ini berlaku. Ini bermakna harga petrol tidak akan diturunkan lagi walaupun berlaku penurunan harga petrol dunia!
Persoalan sekarang, apakah rasionalnya mewajibkan penggunaan biodiesel pada harga RM1.90 seliter? Untuk menyelamatkan perusahaan kelapa sawit, menyelamatkan alam sekitar atau membantu rakyat?
Sewajarnya dengan menggunakan sumber semulajadi yang operasinya jauh lebih murah dari operasi carigali minyak, harganya adalah lebih murah. Sebelum ini, ura-ura menyatakan harga minyak berasakan biodiesel atau biopetrol lebih rendah dari RM1 seliter menjadi pilihan terbaik memandangkan harga minyak yang melambung dengan berikutan bekalan minyak dunia yang semakin berkurangan.
Sila rujuk Bio Petrol At Less Than RM1 Per Litre
Kemelesetan ekonomi mula melanda Malaysia
Pekerja di negara ini dijangka akan merasai kesan kemelesetan ekonomi dunia mulai Februari atau Mac depan, kata Menteri Sumber Manusia Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam.
Beliau berkata setakat ini hanya kira-kira 3,000 pekerja tempatan telah diberhentikan dan Jabatan Tenaga Kerja (JTK) sedang membantu mereka mendapatkan pekerjaan lain selain melatih golongan terbabit di institut latihan kendalian Jabatan Tenaga Manusia.Sumber
Kadar pengangguran tahun depan mungkin meningkat kepada 4.5 peratus berbanding kira-kira 3.5 peratus tahun ini dalam kelembapan ekonomi global sekarang, demikian menurut Institut Penyelidikan Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER).
Menurut pengarah eksekutifnya, Professor Emeritus Dr Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem, berkata dalam suku ketiga tahun ini, rakyat Malaysia yang menganggur berjumlah 12,000 orang dan jumlah itu semakin meningkat. Sumber
Sektor-sektor yang dijangka mudah terjejas adalah sektor penerbangan berikutan berkurangnya pelancong luar, sektor otomobil, sektor perumahan dan sektor perkilangan barangan elektronik.
Kini adalah bergantung kepada langkah-langkah kerajaan untuk membendung masalah ini dari terus menjadi serius. Namun begitu, prestasi ekonomi negara-negara Asia adalah bergantung pada kestabilan ekonomi China. Jika China juga bergelut (dengan krisis ekonomi semasa), ekonomi-ekonomi lain di Asia turut akan berdepan dengan tempoh yang sukar.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Gold Price Will Rise Next Year
Reasons Why Gold Will Rise
1. The Dollar Slide
Over the past five years, the dollar has lost 50% of its value versus the euro. Large institutions and central banks are moving their dollar-based assets into non-dollar-based assets. This is coming at a time when the U.S. economy is slowing to a crawl. In order to stop the U.S. economy from slipping into a recession, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. As rates decrease, the dollar collapses. As the dollar falls, investors are moving their dollar-based assets into assets such as gold – increasing demand and pushing the price even higher.
Source
2. Flight to Quality
The sub-prime mortgage crisis was the catalyst that pushed gold to 28-year highs, and now we’re seeing investors make a flight to quality as fundamentals are supporting strong prices. In 2007, gold produced a return just below 30% while the S&P 500 increased less than 8%. The uncertainty in the U.S. stock market, stemming from the sub-prime crisis, has caused investors to move their assets into stable assets. These assets, such as gold, have provided portfolios with much needed protection and, at the same time, have increased the value of portfolios at a rate of 4 to 1 over the stock market during the past few years.
3. Oil Versus Gold Ratio
Historically, the average oil/gold ratio has been around 15:1, meaning that the price of fifteen barrels of oils equals the price of one ounce of gold. That ratio has recently dropped to around 9:1. To return to average levels, the price of gold would have to increase to around $1400 (or there would have to be a drop of similar magnitude in the price of a barrel of oil). In the near future, $1400 gold is more likely than $50 per barrel oil.
4. Central Bank Sales and Purchases
Central bank sales which served to depress the price of gold throughout the 90s have come to a screeching halt, with most central banks having already liquidated their gold reserves to a bare minimum. Instead of selling, central banks are becoming buyers. For instance, China’s gold reserves account for only one percent of its total reserves. With those reserves piling up rapidly, it seems inevitable that China will diversify part of its foreign exchange reserves into gold.
5. Investment Demand
In recent years, there has been a tremendous increase in institutional demand for gold. In addition, although investment demand has been relatively muted in the U.S., there is plenty of demand from the flourishing middle classes in China and India and from central banks in countries that have enjoyed gains from foreign trade, such as Russia, the Persian Gulf oil producing states, and China.
6. Commodities Super-Cycle
We concur with the strategists at Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs who are among the new generation of “super-cycle” proponents who believe that supply shortages in growing economies in China and India will send commodity prices and gold higher for another 15 to 20 years. The forces that have driven commodity prices higher in the past couple of years remain largely in place: global economic growth is strong; liquidity is plentiful and is increasing; and the demand for commodities will continue to grow in emerging Asia as the region industrializes and wealth grows.
7. Gold Mania
Mine production is falling at the same time that demand is rising. Worldwide investment demand for gold will remain at historically high levels, significantly exceeding 40 million ounces. Don’t rule out the possibility of a full-blooded mania in gold within the next couple of years, particularly given the fact that the flight from the dollar is picking up speed and momentum.
1. The Dollar Slide
Over the past five years, the dollar has lost 50% of its value versus the euro. Large institutions and central banks are moving their dollar-based assets into non-dollar-based assets. This is coming at a time when the U.S. economy is slowing to a crawl. In order to stop the U.S. economy from slipping into a recession, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. As rates decrease, the dollar collapses. As the dollar falls, investors are moving their dollar-based assets into assets such as gold – increasing demand and pushing the price even higher.
Source
2. Flight to Quality
The sub-prime mortgage crisis was the catalyst that pushed gold to 28-year highs, and now we’re seeing investors make a flight to quality as fundamentals are supporting strong prices. In 2007, gold produced a return just below 30% while the S&P 500 increased less than 8%. The uncertainty in the U.S. stock market, stemming from the sub-prime crisis, has caused investors to move their assets into stable assets. These assets, such as gold, have provided portfolios with much needed protection and, at the same time, have increased the value of portfolios at a rate of 4 to 1 over the stock market during the past few years.
3. Oil Versus Gold Ratio
Historically, the average oil/gold ratio has been around 15:1, meaning that the price of fifteen barrels of oils equals the price of one ounce of gold. That ratio has recently dropped to around 9:1. To return to average levels, the price of gold would have to increase to around $1400 (or there would have to be a drop of similar magnitude in the price of a barrel of oil). In the near future, $1400 gold is more likely than $50 per barrel oil.
4. Central Bank Sales and Purchases
Central bank sales which served to depress the price of gold throughout the 90s have come to a screeching halt, with most central banks having already liquidated their gold reserves to a bare minimum. Instead of selling, central banks are becoming buyers. For instance, China’s gold reserves account for only one percent of its total reserves. With those reserves piling up rapidly, it seems inevitable that China will diversify part of its foreign exchange reserves into gold.
5. Investment Demand
In recent years, there has been a tremendous increase in institutional demand for gold. In addition, although investment demand has been relatively muted in the U.S., there is plenty of demand from the flourishing middle classes in China and India and from central banks in countries that have enjoyed gains from foreign trade, such as Russia, the Persian Gulf oil producing states, and China.
6. Commodities Super-Cycle
We concur with the strategists at Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs who are among the new generation of “super-cycle” proponents who believe that supply shortages in growing economies in China and India will send commodity prices and gold higher for another 15 to 20 years. The forces that have driven commodity prices higher in the past couple of years remain largely in place: global economic growth is strong; liquidity is plentiful and is increasing; and the demand for commodities will continue to grow in emerging Asia as the region industrializes and wealth grows.
7. Gold Mania
Mine production is falling at the same time that demand is rising. Worldwide investment demand for gold will remain at historically high levels, significantly exceeding 40 million ounces. Don’t rule out the possibility of a full-blooded mania in gold within the next couple of years, particularly given the fact that the flight from the dollar is picking up speed and momentum.
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